
Thailand’s Constitutional Court has voted unanimously to accept a petition by thirty-six senators that accuses Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of breaching ethical standards. The court also voted, by a 7–2 majority, to suspend Paetongtarn from office during its investigation. The petition was provoked by a leaked recording of Paetongtarn’s phone call to former Cambodian PM Hun Sen, in which the Thai leader seemed to side with Cambodia against her own military.
At a press conference yesterday, before the court voted to accept the petition against her, Paetongtarn said: “If you ask me whether I’m worried, I am.” She has good reason to be, as less than a year ago another group of senators successfully petitioned the Constitutional Court to dismiss her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Paetongtarn’s aunt Yingluck was also dismissed by the Constitutional Court, as were Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat.
Apart from their run-ins with the court, there’s another connection between Paetongtarn, Srettha, Yingluck, Samak, and Somchai: they were all chosen as PM by Thaksin Shinawatra, who was barred from politics by the Constitutional Court in 2007. In fact, today’s announcement came the day after Thaksin attended the Criminal Court for a pre-trial hearing related to his lèse-majesté prosecution, so Thaksin and his daughter Paetongtarn now both have active legal cases against them.
In Thai politics over the last two decades, the same cycle has repeated several times:
1. A prime minister makes an error of judgement.
2. This triggers street protests in Bangkok.
3. The protests escalate, disrupting an election.
4. This leads to political stalemate.
5. This establishes the conditions for a coup.
6. The military overthrows the government.
This process happened in 2006, when Thaksin sold his stake in Shin Corp., sparking the yellow-shirt protests that resulted in a coup. It was repeated in 2014, when protests against Yingluck’s political amnesty policy provoked another coup.
There are already signs that the cycle is beginning again, and anti-Shinawatra protest leaders are preparing to follow the same playbook. The Hun Sen phone call prompted a rally of more than 20,000 nationalist protesters at Victory Monument on 28th June, calling for Paetongtarn’s removal from office, and — if the past is any indicator — they may well achieve their goal.
At a press conference yesterday, before the court voted to accept the petition against her, Paetongtarn said: “If you ask me whether I’m worried, I am.” She has good reason to be, as less than a year ago another group of senators successfully petitioned the Constitutional Court to dismiss her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Paetongtarn’s aunt Yingluck was also dismissed by the Constitutional Court, as were Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat.
Apart from their run-ins with the court, there’s another connection between Paetongtarn, Srettha, Yingluck, Samak, and Somchai: they were all chosen as PM by Thaksin Shinawatra, who was barred from politics by the Constitutional Court in 2007. In fact, today’s announcement came the day after Thaksin attended the Criminal Court for a pre-trial hearing related to his lèse-majesté prosecution, so Thaksin and his daughter Paetongtarn now both have active legal cases against them.
In Thai politics over the last two decades, the same cycle has repeated several times:
1. A prime minister makes an error of judgement.
2. This triggers street protests in Bangkok.
3. The protests escalate, disrupting an election.
4. This leads to political stalemate.
5. This establishes the conditions for a coup.
6. The military overthrows the government.
This process happened in 2006, when Thaksin sold his stake in Shin Corp., sparking the yellow-shirt protests that resulted in a coup. It was repeated in 2014, when protests against Yingluck’s political amnesty policy provoked another coup.
There are already signs that the cycle is beginning again, and anti-Shinawatra protest leaders are preparing to follow the same playbook. The Hun Sen phone call prompted a rally of more than 20,000 nationalist protesters at Victory Monument on 28th June, calling for Paetongtarn’s removal from office, and — if the past is any indicator — they may well achieve their goal.